Pre-Election Spending
Do federal grants spike before elections? We analyzed every grant across every riding and election cycle. Here's what the data shows.
Pre-Election Grants
$122.1M
19 grants
Ridings With Spikes
15
of 21 tracked
Average Spike Ratio
1.6x
above normal spending
Elections Analyzed
3
2019, 2021, 2025
Methodology
Pre-election period: Defined as the 6 months immediately preceding a federal election date. Grant data begins in 2018, so the 2015 election is excluded. Federal elections analyzed: 2019 (Liberal, 43rd Parliament), 2021 (Liberal, 44th Parliament), 2025 (Liberal, 45th Parliament).
Spike ratio: Calculated as the average monthly grant spending in the 6-month pre-election window divided by the average monthly spending in the 12 months before that window. A ratio of 2.0x means spending doubled during the pre-election period.
Important note: Correlation with election timing is not evidence of political motivation. Grant programs have their own cycles, and some spending increases may reflect fiscal year-end patterns, policy announcements, or application backlogs rather than electoral strategy. This analysis presents the data — readers should draw their own conclusions.
An analysis of 1,457 federal grants totaling $553.5M reveals a consistent pattern: grant spending tends to increase in the months before federal elections. Of 21 tracked ridings, 15 show above-normal spending in pre-election periods, with an average spike ratio of 1.6x. The highest spike was 2.8x in Papineau, represented by Soraya Martinez Ferrada (Liberal).
National Trend
Quarterly grant spending totals with federal election dates marked. In the 6 months before each election, spending consistently increases compared to the preceding 12-month average.